Re: Capturing AI capital...is this even possible?
Date: July 18, 2007 09:32AM
Captain Planet: From the instructions attacking in one blow of 18 or 2 blows of 9 has no difference.
Jon: Basically Jon what it comes down to, is you got screwed on the battle field. Maybe your general staff didn't have enough sleep the night before and couldn't make the right decisions during the battle. In theory you should have won on the second battle. Although since the first battle you got screwed on and they only lost 2 troops it really stacked the odds against you for your second attack.
If you would simulate this battle more than once you would find that you would win probably 80-90% of the time. Unfortunately this time the odds just didn't go in your favor.
I've never had any problems taking out an enemies capital when I want to and have the capabilities. remember that any armies not in a fort only have odds in their favor slightly 11:10 odds versus armies in a fort that have 16:10 odds against you and they get worse if he is in a keep 21:10 or castle 31:10 (or it is something like that. Its difficult to say since the instructions are not very clear on the math.) So if the ai is on 9 armies and only in a fort (what they usually start with) you can anticipate that 5 armies are in a fort and 4 outside. So in theory to kill the 4 armies outside the fort you would need 4.4 armies and to kill the ones inside the fort you would need about 8. So over all to make the odds 50% chance that you take it you would have to attack with at least 12.4 armies. Remembrer that attacking with 13 armies doesn't guarentee victory as no battle is 100% gaurenteed.
Basically the statistics and odds were in your favor but even a blind dog gets a bone every now and then. The odds of you losing (I didn't work all the math out and this is a rough guess) was something on the order of you flipping a coin 3 times and all you have to do is get heads once out of any three of those flips. Unfortunately when you went to flip the last 3 times you got tails on all 3 and lost. Does this somewhat make sense?