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The luck we all have
Posted by: DirtyHarry ()
Date: January 29, 2009 12:37PM

Reflections on luck
....................

I think most of us can agree, that luck is a big part of the game - both the luck we have, and the luck we dont have. Especially the last people are good to point out themselves.
Yesterday I experienced a bit of both. First Master and I played a game from a very uneven map, where we had worse lands, that made armies or forts, while our opponents had the opposite. Neither Master nor me complained about it, but it was pretty fast clear that the game was lost - not to our opponents, but more to ai (I think my battles with my direct opponent could be counted on one hand.....). Still they would have us to say the word "concede" before we could end/restart. Well, they can count it as a great victory if they want to. On no point we complained about our luck, although the whispering between us was flooding with cursing. Later I played against OZ - damn I had a good start, and OZ - well he just made all the right moves, but had no luck what so ever... quick "victory" - but I chose to write to him point out my own luck, and said that it wasn't me that won but ai. I know Oz doesnt "believe" in luck, but I still like to believe he was glad, that I pointed it out myself, and thereby showed some recognition and sportsmanship towards a great fighter. Anyways the response was only positive.
What I am trying to say, isn't that one have to point out every time one has a battle that is extremely lucky - that happens in 99% of all games, but when a game is won, and it was clear that ai had more to do with it, then my experiences are good with not claiming a great "victory" but pointing out my own luck. I will try to get even better to carry out this policy my self, and you are always welcome to remind me if I forget it.

*Yesterday I was called an idiot by the mighty Zakistan for stating that a 1v1 with Normandy vs Muscuvy cant be "won" by Normandy - only lost... You can agree or disagree with that statement, it all depends on the view and the moral of the player, but the statement is not idiotic in itself. Calling me idiot for making the statement on the other hand is...well, pretty idiotic.....
**Credit to players like XuuL and Kobra for not whining. I cant remember hearing you whine in the games I have played against/with you.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: Tiffany ()
Date: January 29, 2009 01:57PM

I whine ... i am ashamed to say.... i find any excuse to complain that the attack was unjustified. But most of the time it is just because i missed it coming.
If i join a game late i don't mind being demolished by a stronger player. It is when an atack occurs that i should have been equal to , but it catches me off guard and then i can't get my war machine running right cos all my regions are being duffed up.
I think for you good players losing is not so bad because you just figure it was 'bad luck.' but for us lesser players each loss or win represents the current standard we are at. So you really do live the loss or victory.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: -RIPPE- ()
Date: January 30, 2009 01:41AM

even a lucky zakistan cant win against a unlucky RIPPE, thats because of his one dimensional brain that makes it very difficult for him to understand complicated things.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: Zakistan ()
Date: January 30, 2009 03:02AM

Excuse me :P

DirtyHarry, You were not playing. You were talking in lobby about the game. And wrote something in danish.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: DirtyHarry ()
Date: January 30, 2009 06:38AM

Fantastic, You still don't get it Zakistan, lmao, I was talking about the map - Normandy vs Muscovy - I don't need to be in the game. Most serious conquerorplayers can agree that Normandy would have to win on such a map due to a huge position-advantage, so therefor no-one counts on Muscovy to win - the situation is, that Muscovy have nothing to lose and everything to win, if you are familiar with that expression?

And what have the danish language with this matter to do? That don't make any sense... I just used the danish language to point out to you, that I also was danish, so there was no need to call me an idiot on danish in the lobby, hoping that I wouldn't get it... that also is very idiotic....

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: LikeNoOthers ()
Date: January 31, 2009 06:33AM

I also want to point out, that i did win from Muscovy.. I had a clear advantage when Zakistan just disappeared.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: hallali ()
Date: January 31, 2009 09:31AM

As you all know I like to play 1 vs 1.

Usually I suggest a restart if I am very lucky and the other player very unlucky (except for Master of course :)). It doesn´t make sense to me to play on if the game is decided in turn 10 with luck.

But on the other hand I never request restart as I think it is a quest to turn such a game around. And one can´t win all the time (except for Master of course).

I hate slow deaths so I quite often urge my team to concede in team games when I see the game is lost. But a real man should cope with a nagging woman.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: Master ()
Date: January 31, 2009 02:59PM

But remember you should NEVER give up too fast. You always have very very small of winning.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: MrScientist ()
Date: February 01, 2009 12:30AM

Luck is very important at the start. The first turn determines how much gold
you have for the next. i.e. how fast the exponential growth in the first 10 turns will be.
This makes the balance for the later gameplay. However the longer you play the smaller the effect. At around 30 or so the effect is very small.

All other luck factors (turn order, strange odds) balance out in the end eventually, unless again, it is about a crucial country in the start of the game

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: Kobra ()
Date: February 01, 2009 05:29AM

MrScientist has a point here.
Completely agreed. This is true specially in 1vs1 and 2vs2 games.
In small kingdoms like in 3vs3 games, luck is even more important.

Have luck or not have luck is part of the game, I ll never complain about it.
If you lose the next game, you can complain about the bite mark of a nasty kobra

Luck or no luck, enjoy the game.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: Squeegie ()
Date: February 03, 2009 04:02PM

Master Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> But remember you should NEVER give up too fast.
> You always have very very small of winning.


I totally agree! There are several players who I've heard make the claim "it was over on turn one" (or something to that effect). I always tell them that they are wrong and they never seem to get the concept of a small chance of winning.

I say a 1% chance of winning is worth playing out.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: -RIPPE- ()
Date: February 04, 2009 02:20AM

well squeegie i said that to you in a 3 vs 3 we played lately, and it was absolutely true and has nothing to do with what master wrote. it was a 3 vs 3 game where you had a real newb as enemy, i think it was muscovy vs nicaea, all other positions were seated by good players (i fought hst in saxony from tunis that game). so it was more then obvious that this game was lost from turn 1. you are by far too strong for real newbs. dont get me wrong i am the last one giving up games (NEVER GIVE UP!) but i am also realistic enough to see when games are impossible to win and lost turn 1. luck has nothing to do with it.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: acro ()
Date: February 04, 2009 05:17AM

In 3v3 you can have a very bad start and know from turn 5 or 6 that you're going to be on the defensive for a while, but that doesn't mean you've lost. How many times have you seen Ulster in a losing position but last 50 turns or so, long enough for his/her teammates to win elsewhere? That's the great thing about this game, an advantage at one point doesn't necessarily convert to a victory later on, obviously mainly due to the way support cost is calculated.

Re whining about luck, I think it's definately true that we all notice our bad luck more than we notice our good luck. I have even seen players argue about who has been more unlucky. I am not completely innocent of commenting on luck, but I hope I don't do it enough to be noticed, and if I do, you are welcome to point it out to me!

Good post Harry.

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Re: The luck we all have
Posted by: Squeegie ()
Date: February 04, 2009 12:59PM

-RIPPE- Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> well squeegie i said that to you in a 3 vs 3 we
> played lately, and it was absolutely true and has
> nothing to do with what master wrote. it was a 3
> vs 3 game where you had a real newb as enemy, i
> think it was muscovy vs nicaea, all other
> positions were seated by good players (i fought
> hst in saxony from tunis that game). so it was
> more then obvious that this game was lost from
> turn 1. you are by far too strong for real newbs.
> dont get me wrong i am the last one giving up
> games (NEVER GIVE UP!) but i am also realistic
> enough to see when games are impossible to win and
> lost turn 1. luck has nothing to do with it.

But during that game one of my allies almost died. There was certainly a very good chance he could have at 1 point in the game (I don't remember the exact circumstances, but the capital would have fallen if luck went the other way). Knowing that, it's clear that your team had more than a 1% chance of winning from turn 1.
I agree with you that i shouldn't have been against a noob (i try to avoid that). But my team wasn't a 100% guaranteed winner because of that.

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